![]() Overall, this Strategic Monitor concludes that the tenets of the international order continue to shift. It is recommended that these two observations be taken into consideration in the design of next year’s activities in the framework of the Strategic Monitor. However, as in the Dutch case, most of these documents pay very little attention to the other side of the security coin: opportunities. These include climate change and the exploitation and militarization of space. Interestingly, a number of other countries in their international security documents not only have a different assessment of the six threats identified in the Integrated Foreign and Security Strategy 2018-2022, but also give greater weight to additional threats. In addition, a number of middle powers have both become more relevant and moved closer to the Netherlands on important value dimensions, which means that the Netherlands has a range of potential partners to collaborate with in shaping international regimes and rules in this changing context. China’s ascent economically, militarily, and politically, in combination with the fact that China has a different values system than the Netherlands, implies that, for the Netherlands, China presents both an opportunity and a risk. While the United States and Germany continue to be dominant in Dutch foreign relations, emerging powers have become more relevant as measured along economic, political, and military dimensions over the past decade. Despite ongoing turbulence in the European Union, this regional regime is becoming more relevant for the Netherlands. It can count on close allies and partners in its immediate geographic surroundings. On the world stage, the Netherlands finds itself in a relatively fortunate position. Finally, over the past two decades, the world has become less peaceful and secure because of a growing number of conflicts and conflict fatalities. At the same time, illiberal governments have undeniably been gaining more influence in the regulation of global affairs. Civil and political rights have been declining for over a decade now, in both free and unfree countries. ![]() But despite the growth and spread of democracy over the past two decades, democracy as an institution and especially individual freedoms are under prolonged attack. At the same time, the rule of law has been strengthened and, despite the structural human rights violations in a number of countries, research suggests that human rights protection regimes are improving over time. Societies worldwide have not become more inclusionary, due to a marked increase in identity-driven politics, higher levels of religious restrictiveness, and increases in social hostilities. Although the world as a whole continues to become more connected, increased connectivity has not necessarily brought people closer together. The world population has become more prosperous, but inequality has also increased by different measures. Our analysis of global geodynamics yields a kaleidoscopic picture. Here we see the development of new standards in cyberspace and increasing cooperation in the international efforts to combat terrorism. Trends and developments related to new rules development in cyberspace and rules compliance in counterterrorism are, however, decidedly more positive in nature. For all four of these themes, the degree of cooperation in the international order is shifting towards a greater struggle over the norms and rules of the existing regimes. The trends and developments in the international order reveal a predominantly negative picture with regard to four themes: military competition, hybrid conflict, economic security, and CBRN weapons. ![]() Most indicators for these six themes point to an increased threat for the coming five years. This Strategic Monitor examines the trends and developments with regard to the six most urgent security threats from Worldwide for a safe Netherlands: Integrated Foreign and Security Strategy 2018-2022: military threats, cyber threats, unwanted foreign interference and undermining, threats to vital economic processes, the threat of chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) weapons, and terrorist attacks. In seven chapters the trends and developments in international relations and the Dutch security environment are studied and interpreted, taking stock of the world today and tomorrow. ![]() The report describes and analyzes the most important developments in the international regimes that form the international order. This year’s report looks in more detail at the emergence of a new world order, or rather, orders. This Strategic Monitor 2019-2020, Between Order and Chaos? The Writing on the Wall, examines the structural long-term trends and current events that shape the global security environment and that influence Dutch national interests and values.
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